The fist bump that rocked the world.
Love it love it love it.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Friday, June 6, 2008
Paging Peter Morgan
You know, the author of FROST/NIXON and THE QUEEN?
I think he needs to write a play about Clinton's one hour sit down meeting with Obama in the home of Senator Feinstein (who, it appears, served them water). What was said? How will history be shaped by these two titans facing off, chair to chair, in a room alone, with no cameras, no reporters, no posturing, not even secret servicemen.
My hunch? Hillary wanted to enlist Barack's help to pay off her debts. And maybe discuss how he'll help the black politicians who supported her. I doubt they went deep into a debate about the Vice-Presidency.
And I'm sorry, but Dianne Feinstein didn't just serve water. She's a bubbie! You know she said, "Wouldn't you like something to eat? Some cookies? Pretzles? Just something to nosh, nu?"
Whatever they discussed, I'd love to know what Peter Morgan imagines was said...
I think he needs to write a play about Clinton's one hour sit down meeting with Obama in the home of Senator Feinstein (who, it appears, served them water). What was said? How will history be shaped by these two titans facing off, chair to chair, in a room alone, with no cameras, no reporters, no posturing, not even secret servicemen.
My hunch? Hillary wanted to enlist Barack's help to pay off her debts. And maybe discuss how he'll help the black politicians who supported her. I doubt they went deep into a debate about the Vice-Presidency.
And I'm sorry, but Dianne Feinstein didn't just serve water. She's a bubbie! You know she said, "Wouldn't you like something to eat? Some cookies? Pretzles? Just something to nosh, nu?"
Whatever they discussed, I'd love to know what Peter Morgan imagines was said...
Thursday, June 5, 2008
The Numbers Game
Now we have our nominee, so lets look at our map and see what possibilities lie ahead...
Sure Things
Obama has the following states in the bag:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii, Illinois, Oregon (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New Jersey (15), New Hampshire (4), New York (31), Rhode Island, Vermont (3), Washington (11), Washington D.C. (3).
That gives him 194 votes.
New Jersey's the only one that might be a little tricky, but it's pretty reliably Dem. As long as NJ doesn't get lost in the shuffle, those are solidly blue.
I would argue that Michigan, Minnesota & Wisconson aren't seriously in play, either. They've all voted Dem in the last four presidential elections. Both senators and govs from WI and MI are Dem. Minnesota might be a little trickier, but they recently elected a Dem to the Senate, and Obama's midwestern machine should put him over the top.
That brings him up to 231.
A Look at the Little Guys
Everyone talks about the big boys, but as Obama's party nomination strategy proved, you don't have to win Ohio to win the ballgame.
Iowa voted for Bush in '04, but voted for a Dem in the 3 previous cycles, has a Dem Governor, a powerful former Dem Governor, and a Dem in the Senate. He picks that up and adds 7.
Though it's gone Republican in the last 3 presidential elections, Montana would seem red, but with a blue governor and 2 blue senators (incl. the recently elected Jon Tester), let's add their 3 votes to the tab.
In the southwest, New Mexico and Nevada were reliably blue during the Clinton years. Can Richardson deliver New Mexico? Can Harry Reid rally Nevada? Let's not count on both, but let's assume one comes thru. Add 5 more delegates.
We're up to 246.
The Big Boys
I firmly believe Florida is not in play. Even Bill didn't win it in '92. Charlie Crist took over for Jebbie, pumping some fresh Republican blood into the state, but Florida represents that rare anamoly where age works to McCain's advantage. The state was made for him.
Pennsylvania is a more realistic option for Obama. They ousted Santorum 2 years ago, Rendell is a popular Democratic governor, and the state's gone blue in the last 4 presidential elections. 21 for Obama.
267, baby.
So That Leaves Us
Just 3 delegates shy of the nomination. Obama can lose Ohio & Florida and still have plenty of options. He has to put into play some of the smaller, forgotten states-- sure, Virginia would be a coup (and if he adds Virginia to this tally, he's over the top)-- but if he pours his resources into places like New Mexico, Montana, and Iowa, and works hard to hold onto the Pennsylvania-Michigan base, he can really take this. Without Florida. Without Ohio. Really. Yes, really.
He Just Needs Those 3 Delegates, Which Will Come From...
There's talk that Colorado is in play-- that gives him 9. With the help of the divine Claire McCaskill, Missouri could add 11. Simply go after a Dakota, and the game is over.
But let's make this really easy. Let him lose Colorado. Lose West Virginia. Let's even take Iowa back from him. All he needs are 5 states, and he can do this. Use the big guns in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Use a big gun in Missouri, too. And then, go out West and duke it out in New Mexico & Montana.
That easy. Game over. He makes 271. (The 231 safe-bet figure, which includes Michigan, Wisconson and Minnesota, plus PA's 21, NM's 5, MT's 3 and MI's 11).
MICHIGAN. MINNESOTA. WISCONSON.
PENNSYLVANIA. MISSOURI. NEW MEXICO. MONTANA. (and don't forget new jersey!!)
Barack, put your money into those states, don't stress about Florida and Ohio, and then go pack your bags. You'll be moving to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Feel free to offer your own, more elegantly structured wins below.
You can play and make your own map on USA Today.
Read more at the Atlantic, Salon and Huffington Post.
Sure Things
Obama has the following states in the bag:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii, Illinois, Oregon (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New Jersey (15), New Hampshire (4), New York (31), Rhode Island, Vermont (3), Washington (11), Washington D.C. (3).
That gives him 194 votes.
New Jersey's the only one that might be a little tricky, but it's pretty reliably Dem. As long as NJ doesn't get lost in the shuffle, those are solidly blue.
I would argue that Michigan, Minnesota & Wisconson aren't seriously in play, either. They've all voted Dem in the last four presidential elections. Both senators and govs from WI and MI are Dem. Minnesota might be a little trickier, but they recently elected a Dem to the Senate, and Obama's midwestern machine should put him over the top.
That brings him up to 231.
A Look at the Little Guys
Everyone talks about the big boys, but as Obama's party nomination strategy proved, you don't have to win Ohio to win the ballgame.
Iowa voted for Bush in '04, but voted for a Dem in the 3 previous cycles, has a Dem Governor, a powerful former Dem Governor, and a Dem in the Senate. He picks that up and adds 7.
Though it's gone Republican in the last 3 presidential elections, Montana would seem red, but with a blue governor and 2 blue senators (incl. the recently elected Jon Tester), let's add their 3 votes to the tab.
In the southwest, New Mexico and Nevada were reliably blue during the Clinton years. Can Richardson deliver New Mexico? Can Harry Reid rally Nevada? Let's not count on both, but let's assume one comes thru. Add 5 more delegates.
We're up to 246.
The Big Boys
I firmly believe Florida is not in play. Even Bill didn't win it in '92. Charlie Crist took over for Jebbie, pumping some fresh Republican blood into the state, but Florida represents that rare anamoly where age works to McCain's advantage. The state was made for him.
Pennsylvania is a more realistic option for Obama. They ousted Santorum 2 years ago, Rendell is a popular Democratic governor, and the state's gone blue in the last 4 presidential elections. 21 for Obama.
267, baby.
So That Leaves Us
Just 3 delegates shy of the nomination. Obama can lose Ohio & Florida and still have plenty of options. He has to put into play some of the smaller, forgotten states-- sure, Virginia would be a coup (and if he adds Virginia to this tally, he's over the top)-- but if he pours his resources into places like New Mexico, Montana, and Iowa, and works hard to hold onto the Pennsylvania-Michigan base, he can really take this. Without Florida. Without Ohio. Really. Yes, really.
He Just Needs Those 3 Delegates, Which Will Come From...
There's talk that Colorado is in play-- that gives him 9. With the help of the divine Claire McCaskill, Missouri could add 11. Simply go after a Dakota, and the game is over.
But let's make this really easy. Let him lose Colorado. Lose West Virginia. Let's even take Iowa back from him. All he needs are 5 states, and he can do this. Use the big guns in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Use a big gun in Missouri, too. And then, go out West and duke it out in New Mexico & Montana.
That easy. Game over. He makes 271. (The 231 safe-bet figure, which includes Michigan, Wisconson and Minnesota, plus PA's 21, NM's 5, MT's 3 and MI's 11).
MICHIGAN. MINNESOTA. WISCONSON.
PENNSYLVANIA. MISSOURI. NEW MEXICO. MONTANA. (and don't forget new jersey!!)
Barack, put your money into those states, don't stress about Florida and Ohio, and then go pack your bags. You'll be moving to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Feel free to offer your own, more elegantly structured wins below.
You can play and make your own map on USA Today.
Read more at the Atlantic, Salon and Huffington Post.
When Old People Die, Pigs Will Fly
Maybe the USA Today has upped its liberal readership, but these numbers shocked me. According to their Gallup Poll, 63% of Americans now say the decision for a same-sex couple to marry should be private; in other words, the government ought to have no right to impose laws preventing same-sex marriage. That's kind of a shockingly high number.
And for people aged 18-29, well, 79% of them are in favor of gay marriage. As old people die, once-impossible dreams will come true...
And for people aged 18-29, well, 79% of them are in favor of gay marriage. As old people die, once-impossible dreams will come true...
There Are Worse Things I Could Do
Than go with a boy or two...
So went the famous words in Grease. But for Obama, there are few things worse he could do for his campaign than to ask Queen Clinton to join his ticket. After much speculation that he might offer her the spot, it's refreshing to see an article that says even the number two spot is slipping from her grasp. Thanks, WSJ!
So went the famous words in Grease. But for Obama, there are few things worse he could do for his campaign than to ask Queen Clinton to join his ticket. After much speculation that he might offer her the spot, it's refreshing to see an article that says even the number two spot is slipping from her grasp. Thanks, WSJ!
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
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