One Horse Race; Five Little Ponies

With the end of the writers' strike, it looks like we're going to have a real life Oscar show to watch, and while I should be grateful, of all the years, this is the one I wouldn't have been heartbroken about missing. Joel & Ethan Coen'll collect 3 or 4 trophies each, which is fine, I guess (though There Will Be Blood moved me a great deal more than No Country). The stripper will collect her Original Screenplay statue and say something totally unnecessarily dumb (I've gone from not liking Juno to NOT LIKING it). DDL will get his second trophy, Javier will storm the stage, and Julie Christie will prevail over the likes of Ellen Page and Marion Cotillard.

Yes, kids, it's going to be a boring night. The only chance we have for a surprise is in the race for Best Supporting Actress (sadly, it's often the first prize awarded, so it's still going to be a long and boring night, but at least we're in for one good race). And what a horse race this is! They've each picked up at least one major critical prize this year; you could make a case for any one of these five women and you wouldn't really be going out on a limb. So why not let the ladies speak for themselves?

1) Cate Blanchett- I'm Not There

Pro: I'm Cate fucking Blanchett. You people worship me. You nominated me for being Queen Elizabeth again, and let's face it: that wasn't exactly a well received movie. I'm the closest thing to really truly actually being the next Meryl Streep, except I'm Australian and prettier, and again, let's face it: you like accents, and you like pretty ladies. Also, Heath Ledger was in my movie, so it could be like a little tribute to him if I win, right? I won the Golden Globe. Plus, I'm Cate fucking Blanchett and I'm playing Bob fucking Dylan. That's just cool. It just is.

Con: So what if I won this award 3 years ago for pretending to be a famous star? And so what if none of you even saw this movie? And so what if Todd Haynes' beautiful films have never won any awards? I voted for Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven. Is it my fault you were too daft to do the same?

Please let me be like:
Jessica Lange circa 1982

She had nods in the lead and supporting races. With no shot in the former (it was all Meryl Streep (ahem) that year, starring in Sophie's Choice), she won in the latter, for Tootsie.

Please don't let me be like:
Sigourney Weaver circa 1988
Emma Thompson circa 1993
Julianne Moore circa 2002.

After scoring nods for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress in the same year... they all lost both. Not like me!!!

2) Ruby Dee- American Gangster

Pro: I'm going to die soon. I mean, I'll probably be dead in the next 10 years, certainly in the next 20. And I'm probably not going to be able to keep on memorizing lines and being all dramatic. So this is it, folks. It's now or never. The people at SAG understood that. That's why the gave me the trophy. Cuz I'm not Saoirse. I'm 83 years old. And you're probably gonna send my 83 year old friend Hal Holbrook home with nothing. Nada. Zip. You really want to do that to two 83 year olds? Plus, my movie actually made some decent money. And I know y'all saw it (not like I'm Not There, which, let's be honest, you weren't there either when it was screening on like, what, 4 screens?)

Con: I had about 14 lines of dialogue. I was barely on screen. Plus, I'm black. Maybe some of you think that's an advantage, but the old white people who should have fawned for Bogie's Bacall are gonna be even less inclined to fawn for Davis' Dee.

Please let me be like:

James Coburn- Affliction

His movie, like mine, only scored 2 Oscar nods, but he prevailed over the likes of Ed Harris and Billy Bob.

Please don't let me be like:
Lauren Bacall- The Mirror Has Two Faces
Gloria Stuart- Titanic

Lost the prize despite status as ancient thespian who had never been nominated before. Grrrrreat.

3) Saoirse Ronan- Atonement

Pro: Of the five best picture nominees, mine was the most English Patient-y, and you people loved that shit. Even though I don't have the star power of James & Keira, my character's the one around whom the whole story pivots. You love a great romantic tragedy, so you're sure to have watched my movie, and most of you probably liked it and want to see it win a couple of awards besides, like, Best Score. Next up for me is Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones, so you know I'm about to embark on one hell of a career. I won the Phoenix and Las Vegas critics prizes, which is tres prestigious. Plus, later on in Atonement, my character is played by Vanessa Redgrave. You could have nominated her. Even though her part was small, it was meatier than Ruby Dee's. But you picked me over Vanessa Redgrave. Let's just say that again. You picked me over Vanessa Redgrave. Saoirse or Vanessa? Saoirse.

Con: I'm 13 years old. I'm up against one almost-dead legend, one living legend and 2 indie queens. And I'm 13.

Please let me be like:
Anna Paquin- The Piano

Tatum O'Neal- Paper Moon

Well-liked flick nominated for Best Picture.
Pretty young girl.
Winner.

Please don't let me be like:
Abigail Breslin- Little Miss Sunshine

Well-liked flick nominated for Best Picture.
Pretty(?) young girl.
Loser.

4) Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone

Pro: Um, yah. See that beautiful, classy broad up top, third row on the left? That's me. Now see that cheap looking drug-addicted white trash hussie on the left? That's me, too. Giving a powerhouse dramatic performance in a solid indie flick from Oscar-winning debut director Ben Affleck, I'm a critics darling, having won the Boston, Broadcast, National Board of Review, NY and LA Critics awards for supporting actress. I'm a seasoned pro of the New York theatre world making a fine entrance into Hollywood...

Con: ...I'm a seasoned pro of the New York theatre world making a fine entrance into Hollywood; I'm going to have a long and interesting career. You'll see more of me, in better movies that people will like a lot more than Gone Baby Gone. Hell, this is the only nomination we got. So maybe you like me, maybe you even really like me, but you like some of my competitors' films a whole lot more.

Please let me be like:
Marcia Gay Harden- Pollock

We're both Tony Award nominees (she only has 1, I've got 2) who had substantial roles in well-received dramatic movies where we mastered tough accents (hers was Brooklynese; mine was Boston) and had verbal sparring wars with Ed Harris (he weighed 40 pounds more in her Pollock than in my flick, but whatever).

Please don't let me be like:
Joan Allen- Nixon
Laura Linney- Kinsey

Not that I wouldn't like their careers. My God-- this blonde should be as lucky as her golden-locked, theatre-chopped sisters! They've both earned multiple Tony nods (Joan even won in 1988), but despite multiple Oscar nods, they're serial losers. I wouldn't mind a second nod someday (or third or fourth), but this go-round I'd like to win.

5) Tilda Swinton- Michael Clayton

Pro: Though Atonement also received 7 nominations, Michael Clayton earned many more in the major categories, picking up Picture, Director, Screenplay & 3 acting nods. I'm a veteran of indie cinema, perhaps its royal British Queen. I just won the BAFTA award, which is awfully fancy. In a year when the indie Coen brothers are the toast of the town, you may be feeling more generous toward your less fiscally fortunate thesps.

Con: Michael Clayton just may be the only Best Picture nod this year to go home emptyhanded. It's not winning Best Pic, Tony Gilroy ain't beating Diablo or Joey & Ethan, Tom Wilkinson's not going to stop Javier and George doesn't have a prayer against Daniel Day. So maybe we'll win Best Score? Um, doubtful. I just may be this film's only hope. You liked it enough to nominate us 7 times over. Is that all we're gonna get? Perhaps. And let's be honest, how much love do you moneybags really have for an indie outsider with a strange name? It's not like I'm Barack Obama.

Please let me be like:
Kim Basinger- LA Confidential
Rachel Weisz- The Constant Gardener
Geena Davis- The Accidental Tourist.

Like me, they were the most prominent women in their films, which were well received and nominated for (but ultimately lost) Best Picture. But their supporting ladies won!

Please don't let me be like:
Kathleen Quinlan- Apollo 13
Toni Collette- The Sixth Sense
Marcia Gay-Harden- Mystic River

Like me, they were the most prominent women in their films, which were well received and nominated for (but ultimately lost) Best Picture. And their supporting ladies lost.